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They might ban then but they will have 40 million felons to deal with. The problem with banning high cap mags in the shear number of them.

The best estimate I have seen is around 14.5 Millions AR 15s in circulation (that is sold since 1963 into the US of A) and the average number of magazines out there at between 7 and 8 per rifle (say 7.5). That means around 108 million High cap AR 15 magazines.

There are around 3 million Ruger mini 14 rifles with around 5 magazines per rifle or another 15 million high cap magazines.

There are 1.7 million M1 carbine's with around 4.5 magazines per rifle (15 and 30) or 7.65 million M1 carbine magazines.

so in 3 rifles alone you have at least 130 million high cap magazines. Given the leakage from police sales and military (these are expendable items, or used to be) well the estimates above are likely lower end.

to be added to this: AK 47 (2.5 to 4 million rifles), M1A rifles (350,000), HK91( 200,000 plus), UZI (200,000 plus) and the list goes one and on (FAL, AR-180, SIG551, Sterling MK IV, Thompson 1927, Steyr AUG, Tavor, Galil, AR10, VZ 58 semi, etc) For most of these there are no good estimates.

There could easily be 200 million high cap rifle mags.

Right now the market is saturated, despite the huge sales of 23 million arms (plus) in 2020, including around 7 million new folks who never bought an arm. No less than 1.6 million of the long arms were AR15 derived. One would expect magazines would be in short supply...but they are not. Apex is selling AR steel mags, used for 6 dollars each if you buy 10, Gunbroker you can get 10 G3 mags, like new for 48.50, collectable colt marked mags are 13 dollars from Sarco and I am not really even looking. That means folks have more magazines then they know what to do with, so the above estimates are conservative.


Pistols I have not tracked but consider the: SIG 226, 228, 2009, 1935HP, M9/92FS, Glock, and on and on, and on...

Now the indications are there are shortages of high cap magazines for modern pistols, but not for the Beretta 92 or surplus pistols. But apparently most of the new gun owners are buying high cap pistols, so that might account for the shortage.

even at 3 to 4 mags per pistol what are we talking,60 million 10 120 million million high cap pistol magazines. I really have no clue.

Final point is with 300 million high cap magazines, well I do not see how the effort will succeed. It may well hep the effective break up of the nation that is coming. Very sad but inevitable.
 

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lack of ammo has not stopped them from selling where I work at,

we get a dozen in and they are gone in a day, and we are out of ammo

and FWIW, a lot that I have talked to are new buyers,
I didn't mean people had stopped buying them, but the lack of ammo has kept prices from doubling or tripling as they have in past frenzies.
 

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Just stopped my LGS here in Flagstaff.

Only AR in the rack was a lightly used Colt M4 style AR-15/.223.......Price tag $1999.
 
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They might ban then but they will have 40 million felons to deal with. The problem with banning high cap mags in the shear number of them.

The best estimate I have seen is around 14.5 Millions AR 15s in circulation (that is sold since 1963 into the US of A) and the average number of magazines out there at between 7 and 8 per rifle (say 7.5). That means around 108 million High cap AR 15 magazines.

There are around 3 million Ruger mini 14 rifles with around 5 magazines per rifle or another 15 million high cap magazines.

There are 1.7 million M1 carbine's with around 4.5 magazines per rifle (15 and 30) or 7.65 million M1 carbine magazines.

so in 3 rifles alone you have at least 130 million high cap magazines. Given the leakage from police sales and military (these are expendable items, or used to be) well the estimates above are likely lower end.

to be added to this: AK 47 (2.5 to 4 million rifles), M1A rifles (350,000), HK91( 200,000 plus), UZI (200,000 plus) and the list goes one and on (FAL, AR-180, SIG551, Sterling MK IV, Thompson 1927, Steyr AUG, Tavor, Galil, AR10, VZ 58 semi, etc) For most of these there are no good estimates.

There could easily be 200 million high cap rifle mags.

Right now the market is saturated, despite the huge sales of 23 million arms (plus) in 2020, including around 7 million new folks who never bought an arm. No less than 1.6 million of the long arms were AR15 derived. One would expect magazines would be in short supply...but they are not. Apex is selling AR steel mags, used for 6 dollars each if you buy 10, Gunbroker you can get 10 G3 mags, like new for 48.50, collectable colt marked mags are 13 dollars from Sarco and I am not really even looking. That means folks have more magazines then they know what to do with, so the above estimates are conservative.


Pistols I have not tracked but consider the: SIG 226, 228, 2009, 1935HP, M9/92FS, Glock, and on and on, and on...

Now the indications are there are shortages of high cap magazines for modern pistols, but not for the Beretta 92 or surplus pistols. But apparently most of the new gun owners are buying high cap pistols, so that might account for the shortage.

even at 3 to 4 mags per pistol what are we talking,60 million 10 120 million million high cap pistol magazines. I really have no clue.

Final point is with 300 million high cap magazines, well I do not see how the effort will succeed. It may well hep the effective break up of the nation that is coming. Very sad but inevitable.
What does that come to at $200 tax per semiauto and per magazine?
 

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What does that come to at $200 tax per semiauto and per magazine?

The problem with that is the NFA itself. If you read the SCOTUS briefs on the NFA of 1934, they were very concerned with not blocking access to American Citizens ability to posses "Militarily Significant" weapons. The Heller decision also notes the standard legal theory of the 2nd Amendment emphasizing the intention of the clause was in fact, "Defense from Tyranny".

Nothing in the NFA (SBR's and Shotguns, silencers, and fully automatic weapons) are Militarily significant.


A high capacity magazine fed, shoulder fired, semi-automatic rifle IS Militarily significant. Removing that as an option for the citizenry would put them at a huge disadvantage at being able to check the power of a tyrannical administration. Banning it would contradict standard legal theory and overturn multiple SCOTUS precedence.
 

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I might have posted a version of this elsewhere, but they can hurt 2A in two ways, by passing laws and by promulgating rules.

To pass laws (without GOP votes) they need Dem senators like Manchin to stay on board, and that's a problem for them. They might get him on some picyune stuff, but given his desire to be reelected in KY, big stuff may be a heavy lift for the 'grabbers.

Could they get some NFA tweaks through? Possible, but outright bans are harder. (Note that the political background/environment can change fast so don't write off this threat.)

They can also start playing hardball promulgating new rules and doubling down enforcement of existing ones. This could include applying punitive 'no more Mr. Nice Guy' tactics to 'little people' who get caught in their web, but I don't know enough to speculate what those might be.

I would mind your Ps and Qs in this arena going forward though. Don't make yourself a target.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Plonker's tagline is a quote from Easy Rider: “Americans talk a lot about the value of freedom, but are actually afraid of anyone who truly exhibits it." It always makes me think of the exchange that follows, applied to BATF and other regulators:

"Well, it don't make them running scared, it makes them dangerous."
 

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A quick correction to the figures above:

only around 115,000 semi Uzis (85,000 action arms, 10,000 Chinese, 20,000 US stamped ones made brown/vector/others on SA/FN/US/Israeli part kits)

HK91 rifles is more like 95~110,000. Problems is the estimates for JLK/PTR 91, SAR 8 rifles are pretty crude. It is known ~48,900 HK 91 rifles imported to 1989, and PTR made at least 23,000 AW series, , 6,900 A series, but the GI series is unknown, as are some other small runs. Number of HK41 is small (~400). SAR 8: imported from 1984 to 1994, numbers unknown but over 10,000. No figures on Century builds, of three different varieties.

Same is true for Cetme sporter/century rebuilt guns. Highest serial number seen in the 61,300 range, but it seems certain blocks are missing.

AK is well over 3 million, 3.5 million safe figure, 4 million is a very crude high estimate but there might be more, the problem is all the home built ones. No one seems to have answer to this one.

Some are small like the Sterling semi-auto, only around 6,000 imported plus a few thousand made up by Wiselite and Century. 9~10,000 fair estimate.

Same is true for the AR-180, three import rages plus the AR180B made by Armalite a few years. maybe 18,000 total.

Fal is a big figure, on order of HK91, but unknows, too many variants/importers
 

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Still some wishful thinking / denial going on here on this discussion. It takes nothing for Biden to issue executive orders.
He can stop internet sales of gun parts , magazines, ammo : he's already stated he intends to do so.
He can make all semi auto rifles NFA and require $200 tax stamp: he doesn't have to have the ability to enforce that , only to have the ability to take you to court if you are found afoul of the NFA. He can easily ban sale of semi auto weapons and stop imports of them as well as imports of ammo. He can regulate the amount of ammo you can legally own or buy. He can require a license (and fee) for every weapon you own. He can mandate a background check for ammo that you purchase. He can make ammo just about dry up on the market if he puts restrictions on purchase / possession of ammo and that kills any value of firearms down the road.

1 Party Rule comes in days...and they can pass the Gun Control Act of 2021 and stuff every thing they want into that
and bring us to our knees. Biden has already stated many times the Aussie gun control model is ideal.

Now the important part: They Don't Care. They Want Your Guns. Now once you get that point firmly in your head,
you know exactly how much pain is inbound. and yeah, they're hell bend to make this happen.
 

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That's very plausible, but unless you know a lot more details about these statutes I don't think it's as much a "given" as you suggest. They can only promulgate rules and he can only impose "executive orders" where statutes - laws - grant specific authority for it.

Will he and they abuse and bend that to the max? Certainly. Might they be able to screw up or even suspend some commerce for a while? Probably, but without statutory authority the courts will eventually rein it in, including the current 2A-friendly SCOTUS.

Are you saying specific statutes do grant that authority, or just that he'll use the "phone and the pen" to make our lives more uncomforble.


There's a mistake commanders in battle make, which is to assume the enemy is more powerful and competent than is real. The flip side is also a bad mistake - going in cocky. In this "battle" all sides are subject to similar factors.
 

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He can technically issue any EO he wants and as long as he finds a judge to go along with it will at least stand for a period of time (bump stocks have been in this limbo going on now for 3 years).
 

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Ten million people start getting knocks on the door courts including SCOTUS won't respond the same as an irrelevant handful who lose a dubious gadget. I'm not trying to be Pollyanna, but don't want to be General MacClellan either ("A zillion Rebs!" <grin> )
 

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I didn't mean people had stopped buying them, but the lack of ammo has kept prices from doubling or tripling as they have in past frenzies.
dunno,

after the past few panics just about every one that knows what they are has several, and ammo stacked up,

the new folks are buying more now than ever,

I put a couple lowers online not long ago, to see how they are doing, and both sold about at MSRP
 

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There's a mistake commanders in battle make, which is to assume the enemy is more powerful and competent than is real. The flip side is also a bad mistake - going in cocky. In this "battle" all sides are subject to similar factors.
Oh yes, the Military Decision Making Process, of which I am totally familiar with , it does require a thorough analysis is enemy courses of action upon which you must have resources to meet. You don't just pick the enemies likely course of action and not deal with the others.

That said, a plan deals with all aspects of enemy capabilities and the enemy has one thing always: He has choice.

Bring that forward, I listed but a few of the obvious anti gun agenda out in the open. You can prepare for them or be in denial but there is one over arching hard fact: THEY DON"T CARE< THEY WANT YOUR GUNS.

They play Total War. If one does not grasp that fully, one is untrainable.
 

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Milprlleb,

I get what you say, but on our side what possible WARNO can be issued to patriots? The fact is we do not have the initiative, do not have supporting elements (courts, republican party), The NRA is moribund due to its corruption scandals and now, if the data scientists I work with are correct, do not have a free vote on the federal level (and in around 14 states). Nor do we have the right of free press (no communications). Without free press it is impossible to build any kind of organization to oppose the left. One would think it is hopeless.

But a study of history says what the left has planned will be opposed. The simple fact is with a century of utopian left coups and the results, which do not deviate from disaster. In our case they are starting with an economy that is in a depression. The official states say the GDP is only down 5.6 % for 2020, but like every thing else it is lies. The simple way to see that is look at energy use, it is down over 10.6% year to year. The way they hid it is to print dollars and count the use of them as economic activity, while ignoring the inflation that results. True economic activity is down around 12 % going into 2020, with a healthy headwind of inflation, both from the classical definition (more money without economic production to match) and the modern higher prices. Given the utopian instincts and lack of constraint, they are not equipped to deal with this, bad things are coming this summer economically. At the same time 73.5 to 77.2 million voters and their families see the Federal government as lacking legal authority. There will be opposition, but not federally.

At the state level, you have something like 8 or 9 states that have previously nullified federal gun laws, but the issue has never been tested:

Eight states have passed laws voiding federal firearms regulations | GUN WARS: A News21 Investigation

Texas seems to be the likely hot spot going forward:

Bill to Turn Entire State into ‘Gun Rights Sanctuary’ by Nullifying Federal Gun Control Laws | SGT Report

The number of arms in the US is around 430 million. No less than 20 million are so-called assault rifles or equivalent ability to use high cap magazines. High capacity pistols..... no idea but it is on the order of 18.5 to 35 million (could be more). The number of 10 round + magazines is around 280 million with an error of measurement on the order of +/- 70 million. At least 48 million pump and semi-auto shotguns. Trust of the government at an all time low. A government which made it clear they would not maintain order against violent leftists in cities. Increased polarization between different states (think Texas and New York). Under those circumstances I cannot see any gun control scheme working in the short term or medium term.
 

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I just watched an auction that ended a few days ago, a run of the mill AR-15 sold for $2700.00 (two or more guys in a pissing contest?).
I did see another site, can't remember had about 580 for sale only 1 was near $580.00 most were around $1,000.00
 

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From Biden’s website:

  • Buy back the assault weapons and high-capacity magazines already in our communities. Biden will also institute a program to buy back weapons of war currently on our streets. This will give individuals who now possess assault weapons or high-capacity magazines two options: sell the weapons to the government, or register them under the National Firearms Act.
How can they buy back something they NEVER OWNED???????
 

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Just another reason to remember: Buy when the prices are low.

In 2018 and 2019, guns n ammo were priced lower than I have seen in years. It might be years before ammo prices are reasonable, if ever. If ammo prices get reasonable, buy ammo for times like these.

In 2019, I bought a new Colt LE6920 for $700 on sale. They couldn't get anyone to pay full MSRP. I didn't want to pass that up. Glad I didn't pass it up.
 
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