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Discussion Starter #1 (Edited)

Interest in Japanese rifles going down?

Topic:



Topic author: Fatstrat
Subject: Interest in Japanese rifles going down?
Posted on: 09/01/2003 2:46:40 PM
Message:
In my latest "Shotgun News" the Question and answer chapter (in the front of the Magizine, hosted by "The gun guy"", had a question. Whats hot, and whats not, in term of what collectors are buying these days. He listed Japanese rifles as "Not Hot". Doesn't seem that way to me.

Replies:

Reply author: Earl
Replied on: 09/01/2003 3:02:50 PM
Message:
I think it depends. If you are a gunshow dealer and you have a mismatched and/or ground rifle and put it on your table with a price that you saw a matching/mummed example sell for on Auction Arms - yeah you'll have the impression they aren't hot sellers!

Earl

Reply author: Navybuff
Replied on: 09/01/2003 3:25:22 PM
Message:
I have to agree with Earl. If the author is going by what he sees sellon line. He sees Sig's and a few other overpriced Arisakas listed over and over again and may think there is no interest. But if he looked close and saw how high the price goes on the good Mum/Match ones that show up and start at a reasonable price, I think he would change his tune to something more like. "The true Japanese rifles collector has decided to be more picky about the rifles he is going to invest in. a yaer ago I would have a cow when I wrote a check for $175 for a type 99. Now I'm looking in the near future of writting the same check for $300 without batting an eye. Times change and so do collectors.

Reply author: kfields
Replied on: 09/01/2003 4:04:07 PM
Message:
If there isn't a lot of volume to begin with hitting the shows AND cheap ammo isn't sitting around at a couple cents a round to fuel the buying, then it isn't hot. When you look at so much of the Russian/Finnish stuff coming in combined with the gobs of cheap ammo, it seems like it would be much easier to create a market where none existed before. Every show I've been to this year (except for the SOS show), I can probably safely say I've only seen less than 10 Japanese firearms at each show and many times only 2 or 3 and those were usually overpriced with some sort of "problem" to the extent I didn't even bother to haggle. One might ask why I keep going back...good question! Fortunately (or unfortuntely) I collect lots of things and I have a mile long shopping list of things I look for! Of course I have picked up a few Japanese rifle gems and met some good contacts over the last couple years so overall it has been well worth it for me and fun to boot.

Reply author: p3skyking
Replied on: 09/01/2003 8:33:33 PM
Message:
A few points to consider: How many advertisers in Shotgun News are importing Arisakas?

If you think that writers don't influence purchases, remember a few years back all the gun rags were praising 16 gauge. The next season, everybody and his brother had to have a 16 guage.

Advertisers right now are choking on Mosins, not Arisakas. In real life, the supply of rifles is finite and supply cannot keep up with demand. Japanese and German arms will ALWAYS be hot!

Reply author: BradB
Replied on: 09/01/2003 9:09:50 PM
Message:
I personally have NO issue with someone characterizing Japanese rifles as "Not Hot". While it shows incredible ignorance (prices have nearly doubled in the last 4 years... supply and demand) or a strange set of parameters ("I don't see a lot of folks walking out gunshow doors carrying one"), any disinformation out there that has Bubba sell me his rifle cheap is a good thing.


Reply author: Fatstrat
Replied on: 09/01/2003 9:47:39 PM
Message:
Good point Brad.

Reply author: WLD Bill
Replied on: 09/01/2003 10:59:23 PM
Message:
I will agree with those who think they are not hot,i also agree that the reason a lot of people do not fool with them is the lack of cheap ammo.
I bought a type 2 with mum,all matching , airplane sights,cleaning rod,exc.bore,very good metal,the only problem is the heavy coat of poly.on the stock-the price-$250,also bought a type 99 series 1,Nagoya Arsenal,low part of ser.# range,mum ground,about 70%blue,all matching #very good bore,stock has seen service,but no cracks,or heavy gouges-price-$50(I will buy them all day at this price.Had 2 ladies with a last ditch they wanted 550.00 for,one stated she saw one on Auction arms for $1000,tried to explain that this would have to be different from the one they had.They walked away thinking i was trying to beat them out of a rare rifle.
This is what collecting is all about,the hunt.

Reply author: p3skyking
Replied on: 09/03/2003 01:49:53 AM
Message:
There's obviously more to the type 2 story. In any setting where other collectors were present and had a chance to purchase, the going price would have been higher.

Reply author: WLD Bill
Replied on: 09/03/2003 07:21:25 AM
Message:
I was outside smoking and the fellow walked up to me.See smoking is not always bad.

Reply author: p3skyking
Replied on: 09/03/2003 7:14:29 PM
Message:
Well, in that case, you can double your money. I am ready to send you $500 for it in the condition you state. I am an FFL.

Reply author: WLD Bill
Replied on: 09/03/2003 10:21:38 PM
Message:
Thanks for the offer but i have looked for one for several years.Should i decide to part with it i will keep you in mind.

Reply author: Anthony
Replied on: 09/03/2003 10:29:37 PM
Message:
Japanese rifles have gone up in the last 5 years-at least the asking price has gone up online, but I am not certain that many will pay the current asking prices. These were 20.00 - 100.00 guns on average for at least 50 years! Too many collectors remember that and are not going to pay 300-600 for a Type 99 or Type 38 unless the gun has something about it that is special. A vet gun with papers that is matching/mint/mummed with all original parts including slings might hit that bar. As for Type 44, Carbines, etc.. perhaps more, but not a grand! The Type 2 and real snipers are the market that is to be watched. As for the guy with a Type 2 for a couple hundred, you are a lucky SOB. No offense intended, but I am green over that find.


Reply author: Tuco
Replied on: 09/06/2003 9:31:23 PM
Message:
I hate to say this but I agree somewhat. The reason being that it is getting tough to find examples with mums that are not sky high in price. Since many have convinced the world that a rifle-carbine without a mum is junk, I see these at shows all the time and almost never see them sell. As mainly what is seen at shows - at least shows that I go to - are without mum, these rifles just sit on tables show after show. I am guessing that is what the author is basing his opinion on as he is correct there is little to no interest in these.

Reply author: gwsiii
Replied on: 09/06/2003 10:32:28 PM
Message:
I'm glad you guys don't like ground guns, It makes my collecting alot cheaper, and easier. I used to worry about mums, spent an entire gunshow, without looking at a rifle because it didn't have a mum. Finally looked at it on Sunday. It was a matching Izawa 4th series, 3k range, ground. (Oh, Miss Scarlett, I don't know nothin about buyin no groun guns') it hurt me bad to pay $100 for that ground gun. Trey

Reply author: Anthony
Replied on: 09/06/2003 10:42:08 PM
Message:
I see the same thing Tuco on the East Coast. The sad fact is most of the Vet guns had the Mum defaced unless it got home while the war was still in progress! They even had Japanese guns defaced by the Vets who captured guns in battle that brought them home after hostilities had ended in 1945-46. Our attempt to honor the treaty to the letter created a supply and demand price war on Japanese rifles with Mums intact today.

As a collector who will sell my collection before my wife has to liquidate my estate I simply won't invest in Japanese guns without a Mum because I am certain the value will be secure on these guns. But I also realize I will pay more then I want to for Japanese rifles with that Mum. It kinda stinks. My hats are off to the guys who are into the history and realize the peened/defaced Mum is part of the Japanese rifles legit history.

Reply author: Anthony
Replied on: 09/06/2003 11:22:23 PM
Message:
The fact is Mum or no Mum a Japanese T38/T99 is worth so much. The Sellers on AA/Gunbroker will kill off Japanese collecting like they have German K98 collecting. They can interject all the shill bidders that they can find no one is going to pay 500-600 for a T38/T99 Mum or no Mum!


Reply author: Jareth
Replied on: 09/07/2003 11:22:12 AM
Message:
Without (hopefully) opening up the old "mum vs ground" discussion here are my thoughts...prices ARE going up..but on exceptional condition & rare/unusual guns. I'm not a mum collector. The only way I'll buy a ground gun is if it's rare model or dirt common but in brand new/mint condition. Eventually mumed guns might dry up, hoarded away etc. This leaves a huge amount of perfectly nice ground guns for collectors. I've always disagreed with the promum lobbiest. I think all there "helpful" advice to newbies does more harm than help. This lead to guns being parted out etc. Sure it depends on the region you live in, your patience (or lack of) and most importantly your wallet. I say don't worry about values. Always try and buy the best condition rifle available.

Reply author: Jareth
Replied on: 09/07/2003 11:25:39 AM
Message:
I forgot to say that the reason why one might assume that Jap. rifle values has decreased (or slowed down) is because all the nice guns dont make it to the guns shows or Shotgun News..there sold with one phone call!

Reply author: rcb
Replied on: 09/07/2003 5:14:08 PM
Message:
I think a lot depends on whether you are collector or and investor. If you are an investor who is planning on selling out one day and making money then all you buy needs to be pristine with a mum. If you are a collector who really loves the old guns for what they are and history the the ones with ground mums will do. The nicest rifle I have is a beautiful Series 40 with the mum ground. I don't want to sell or trade and will leave all I have to my children and they say they are not intersted in selling. I think young collectors are dissheartened by the prodding to buy just mums. But they could afford a few that were ground. Just my opinion. rcb

Reply author: kfields
Replied on: 09/07/2003 7:22:38 PM
Message:
Points well taken. It's getting tougher for me to come by a Japanese rifle that is mummed and matching at any of the shows I've been to lately. The all matching mummed ones I've found have involved networking with other collector acquaintances or the time it takes to visit little out of the way shops or hitting a flea market right when the fellow lays it out on the table. On the other hand, I've bought a couple really really nice Japanese rifles at shows late in the day, after they've set on the table for hours! I've marvelled at my good fortune and look at the rifle much more closely wondering what am I missing that the other collectors saw that kept them from buying? I don't make a habit of laying out large sums of money for any rifle (okay, I'm on the cheap side). I do have several really nice condition rifles that are ground or "X'd" or that are mismatched with the mum. I bought those because they were in nice shape or had something else going for it and the price was fair. Excellent thread Fatstrat.

Reply author: p3skyking
Replied on: 09/15/2003 12:58:14 AM
Message:
This is offered for your enjoyment with no comment.

AA Auction 4884952 (Ended 09/13/2003, 13:01:10 PST) Matching inc. Dustcover w/full mum and orig.sling
Address:http://www.auctionarms.com/Search/DisplayItem.cfm?ItemNum=4884952.0

Reply author: byf45
Replied on: 01/08/2004 8:07:36 PM
Message:
When I first started collecting in the `70's the Japanese weapons, both rifles and pistols, were the considered the 'poor bastard sons' to their German counterparts. A T14 was $50 compared to it's Luger counterpart at $200. A T99 sniper was $300 to it's K98 turret mount at 5 or 6 times that price. Many collectors would not even look at a Japanese piece -- it was 'junk' compared to the fine German craftsmanship. A few of you will remember those 'good ol' days'...
My, how times have changed. Japanese is now every bit as collectible as German, if not perhaps more so in that many of the former are still relatively affordable and though drying up, are still available.
The Japanese weapons have finally earned their rightful place in the world and I think we are all testimony to that.
JB

Reply author: uwintoo
Replied on: 01/08/2004 10:23:00 PM
Message:
ITS ONLY JUST BEGUN GENTS!!!!!

When M1 garands picked up value in 1998 after the release of Saving Private ryan there was no looking back for them and now a collector grade original IF you can find one which is nearly impossible from 1938-43 production years and 1944 production year occasionally. and if you do be prepared to spend from 1200-5000 thousand. Prices are only going to go up, and not to mention the producers of Band of Brothers are making a Pacific War Movie~ wait and see the prices areant going down and they will only go up ever so quickly.

Michael

Reply author: pacific-war44
Replied on: 01/09/2004 02:39:46 AM
Message:
Well,my two SEN worth!My late dad brought back a t-38 and a t-99 from the Phillipine liberation and Japan occupation,the 38 was full mum and picked up in the field and the 99 was a Saesbo dock hand-out.My old man coddled em' both to the same affection,so a mum didn't matter to the vets,in my opinion.I collect items now with an eye for a)no alterations,b)a slightly salty look i.e."been there".Mint factory captures aren't my forte',neither is nationally de-faced items.Ever see a ground-eagle Nazi-era 98 rifle?You know what those are worth?Sporter projects!I realize a 9th Izawa t-99 or a no series t-38 Nagoya carbine are rarities,but with a big grinder gouge at the main focal point of the reciever bridge,it just don't float my boat,sorry.I would be partial to a ground type 2 for 500.00,but thats my limit. Scott W.

Reply author: Ronin48
Replied on: 01/09/2004 05:52:54 AM
Message:
I bought two complete early rifles, pod, rod, AA arms, mum, matching, good, not great stocks for $500 some time back. Not as much room as the Tuscaloosa house so took the two to several shows thinking I'd make about $100 on each. Finaly sold one for $300 and the other for $265. When I sell/give away, tomato stake the ones left from years collecting no more rifles to shows unless I'dm delivering one. Will pick up the rare ones as I run across them.

Reply author: Nyles
Replied on: 01/11/2004 5:45:46 PM
Message:
You know, I really have to envy you guys that you can even have this conversation. I'm in Canada, and I've been looking for a decent T99 for years. If it was in decent shape and not refinished (at this point I'd even take one that's been not too badly refinished), I'd take it and be happy to ge it for 300$. Mummed, ground, matching, not matching, AA wings, monopod, dustcover or without. Have yet to find one in at all decent shape.

As for the whole mummed / ground issue, I see how a mummed rifle is worth more, but I'd still take a ground rifle without a second thought. Before they were ground, they were used, and having the mum defaced is an interesting bit of history, something of an insight into the Japanese mindset.

Reply author: JOLLYROGER
Replied on: 01/18/2004 6:43:11 PM
Message:
I SHOOT RELOADS MADE FROM 30-06 CASES IN A TYPE 99
YOU NEED 30-06 DIES AND FULL LENGTH SIZE DIES FOR 7.7 JAPANESE
SIZE AND DEPRIME FIRST IN 30-06 DIES.
THEN REMOVE DECAPING PIN IN 7.7 DIES THEN FULL LENGTH SIZE.
MAKE SURE CASES ARE CLEAN AND USE SIZING LUBE.
THEN POWER TRIM TO LENGTH WHICH IS 2.260 IN.
TAKE A RCBS DEBURING TOOL DEBUR INSIDE AND OUT.
YOU JUST MADE A 7.7X58MM ROUND.
USE .311 BULLETS 174 GR SIERRA MATCH WORKS GREAT.


Reply author: ComradeAndrei
Replied on: 01/20/2004 3:33:38 PM
Message:
The last Arisaka I bought had the mum, but was unmatching. What is better, matching or mummed? It was for a decent price and was an early Koishikawa and I just wanted to have it. Shoots pretty good for having a shot-out bore.

Reply author: Navybuff
Replied on: 01/20/2004 4:51:51 PM
Message:
I think interest in Arisaka's in fact has gone up. Look at the lack of them going up for auctuion on Auction Arms and Gunbroker. We've all read the post here about this or that auction that has gone way beyound the value of the rifle. I think this is due to the fact that interest has gone up and with so many more collecting there is just not enough of them to go around. When and if a large collection comes on the market, I think we will all see just how much interest there is out there. The last few gun shows I've been to have had "NO, NONE, ZERO, ZIP" Arisaka's, When I ask the normal dealers what is up? They respong by telling me they either never see them come in the door anymore or they have a guy or 2 who has then basicly on retainer. Meaning every Arisaka they get those guys get first dibbs. One dealer told me the same guy has bought the last 9 Arisaka's he got. Due to being under the weather I was unable to go to last weekends Indy 1,500, But I knew two guys going and they had my cell number to call me everytime they say one I might want to hear about. I didn't get a single call.

Reply author: vis35
Replied on: 01/20/2004 8:07:46 PM
Message:
Comradeandrei,
You might want to take a closer look at your rifle’s bore, early T-99’s had chrome plated bores that are almost impossible to rust, however, the Japanese used metford style rifling that looks worn even when it is not.
Regards,
Jeff


Reply author: ComradeAndrei
Replied on: 01/21/2004 1:09:32 PM
Message:
It's actually an early Type 38 so no chrome lining. The bore does look awful worn but it can hit beer cans at 100m. I always just figured that the long and heavy bullet of the 6,5x50SR Norma ammo I was using stabilized a bit better than would a shorter bullet.

The rifle itself isn't in bad shape, it probably has about 80+% bluing and the stock is not in bad shape at all save for a few very minor dings and scratches.

Reply author: pt460
Replied on: 02/02/2004 1:49:26 PM
Message:
There seem to be quite a few japanese rifles at gunshows I have been to lately. The prices seem to be coming down to me. They were starting to get outrageous, but seem to me to be coming back down to earth.
I picked up an average run-of-the-mill ground-mum mismatch T99 w/AA sights for $85 OTD at the last gun show I went to. This month I have bought a mummed T38 carbine for $250, and a mummed T38 long rifle for $150. I used to never see mummed rifles of any type or condition for less than $200.


Reply author: Prez1981
Replied on: 02/02/2004 5:29:54 PM
Message:
I would love to believe that, but I haven't seen any good Japanese rifles at the show in a while. The usual ones are about $300 for a refinished stock/metal ground Type 99 or $200 for the same but not refinished. :(

Reply author: pt460
Replied on: 02/02/2004 6:11:41 PM
Message:
Here's a T38 I just bought today:

http://www.auctionarms.com/Closed/DisplayItem.cfm?ItemNum=5435799.0

I don't know what's going on, maybe it is just coincidence, but I sure have been seeing ALOT of Japanese rifles and at reasonable prices. I have really started noticing it in the past 6 months.



Reply author: Navybuff
Replied on: 02/02/2004 8:48:45 PM
Message:
pt460, I think you better not tell us where you have been seeing these, or may not see them anymore
. I mainly can only buy in the winter when work is slow and I can be around for the BBT. This winter I have been sitting on $$$ with no where to spend it. Nothing has shown up at the shows I've been to and I can't make it to the SOS/NGD
. I have been checking Auction Arms, Gun Brokers, the Trader here and am right now driving an estate auctioneer I know nuts because he will have a sale soon with one t99 in it and it's packed away and he can't give me information about it. Interest is not dropping!! on my part. I feel like the well has run dry. I've had a few leads but I'm always a day late with a dollar to much!!.


Reply author: byf45
Replied on: 02/02/2004 11:07:31 PM
Message:
I'm with you, Kevin. Things seem to have dryed up for the most part. Maybe it just depends on where you live .. or pure dumb luck ... or lotsa' contacts. You'd think the auction sites would 'runneth over' with folks trying to get the best return from a national audience but there seems to be a dirth (yes, dirth) of good items, Japanese or otherwise. I think interest in Japanese items is still very high, though I can't say the same for Lugers and Broomhandles. Is it just my imagination or has interest waned on those...?
JB

Reply author: Leonid
Replied on: 03/11/2004 03:31:13 AM
Message:
Howdy. Just registered_first posting. I wish interest would go down! Collecting 15 yrs, military focus only 5-6, yet I've seen prices on even fairly common pieces double or better in last few yrs.(Example: the Berthier musketoon I gave $50 for I now see priced $150+ when I even see one.) For a long time I only had 2 Japanese rifles: a mummed, pristine T38 which cost me $110 back in the day, and a decent T99 whose mum looked like it had been gently tapped once with a hammer_$95. I don't have alot of extra bread for collecting; $300-$400 is a major investment. Last weekend I picked up a Type I at a local show. Totally unfamiliar with it so I started researching Japanese rifles and here I am! I'm learning alot and definitely on the hunt now! But again, the T99's I find (38's are nonexistant) start around $200+. Y'all are right. If they put out a major Pacific Theatre movie I'll never afford an arisaka again. We have 'Zulu' to thank for the $800 martinis... Anyway, I am here before you seeking enlightenment. Trying to find details on my Japanese mannlicher. I've read 60,000 production,few seeing combat, so encountered specimens should be pretty cherry. Oh well, I'd judge mine NRA 'Good': mechanically sound, excellent bore, fairly good wood, and maybe 80% blue. BUT there are two deep short slashes in the buttstock and a foot long patch of what appears to be blood pitting on the barrel just in front of the handguard. Even better, it's missing the floorplate, mag spring, and follower. I brought it home for $110 and have since ordered the parts for $24 including shipping. So, I'll have a shootable Type I for under $135. Did I do ok or am I one of those who are born every minute? I average 1-2 gunshows a month and in 12 yrs this is the first Type I that I've seen. I like offbeat firearms and it will go well with my Finnish carcano. Sorry to be so long-winded. I don't get to talk guns very often. My friends all think I'm degenerate. Oh yeah, local pawn shop has a T38 long rifle, excellent condition with mum-$175; but all metal parts are CHROMED! The dealer claims its a "parade model" but I suspect someone had a chrome shop and too much spare time. I've never heard of a "parade model" arisaka. Anyway, all feedback appreciated. I definitely see more Japanese long guns in my future!

Reply author: rcb
Replied on: 03/11/2004 07:59:40 AM
Message:
Anyone who thinks interest is going down should look at the trader and also the auctions. I'm paying more each year for good stuff. Oh sure I luck up on a deal ever once in awhile but interest and price will continue to rise. Japanese rifles are just like land, they don't make them anymore. You did fine on the T I. There were no chrome parade rifles in Japan. rcb.

Reply author: annalease
Replied on: 03/11/2004 09:26:38 AM
Message:
i would hate to think what the impact, of tom hanks and steven spielberg new movie in the pacific, this time ,will have on prices!!!the same for saveing private ryan for german rifles and also enemy at the gates had on russian sniper rifles. exsposer gentilman, buy now while you still can!!

Reply author: kywoodwrkr
Replied on: 03/11/2004 10:13:06 AM
Message:
I don't know if interest is down in the Louisville KY area or not but I recently went into a local gun shop and he had 16 Japanese rifles in the rack. 3 T38 and 13 T99.
I've known this dealer for many years.
He had $150-$350 on the rifles in the rack.
I've had some nice japanese rifles before but never into collecting them so don't know what these are really worth.
He'd only sold one in the last year so interest was not extremely high in my view.
He offered them all to me for a given price per and I bought them.
I'd have to say my interest came up a notch however. :)
FWIW DaveP


Reply author: Navybuff
Replied on: 03/11/2004 5:57:18 PM
Message:
Welcome Leonid, You'll like it here. Lots of good people with a wealth of knowledge.



 
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