Gunboards Forums banner
1 - 12 of 12 Posts

·
Registered
Joined
·
3,525 Posts
Discussion Starter · #1 ·
How Do We Reconcile A Drop In Violent Crime With An Explosion In Gun Sales?
Mike Weisser
Mike the Gun Guy
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry...sion-in-gun-sales_us_58e6702de4b0773c0d3edfb4

How do we explain that the number of guns owned by Americans keeps increasing at a rather remarkable rate, yet violent gun crimes have been fairly level since 2000 even though gun sales exploded between 2008 and 2016? You would think that, given the ease with which a gun can be used in a violent way (as opposed to a knife or other types of weapons), that the more guns we have floating around, the more violent crime would occur. But that has not been the case. Since 2008, arrests for murder have decreased by nearly 20 percent. Meanwhile, over the same period, more than 75 million guns were added to the civilian arsenal, a doubling of the number added during the administration of George W. Bush. So what gives? ...
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
13,944 Posts
I believe that article sets some kind of record for invented and/or manufactured facts, misuse of statistics (how does regression analysis NOT give you a trend?), and just plain lies in support of a conclusion they intended all along to get to in an article that short.
 

·
Silver Bullet member
Joined
·
36,239 Posts
The basic problem in any criminology/sociology/statistical research on guns and on crime is that the data on motivation, the reasons for crime, doesn't exist except as a collection of anecdotes. So you don't have the only independent variables that have much effect.

Active policing and incarceration cuts crime, as proven by the results of the BLM movement and Obama's pardons. Nothing else seems to and guns seem to have a minor positive effect, in the single digit area at best. The biggest impact of shall issue concealed carry permits was in Florida at 9% drop in murders and that's an outlier. Zero to 3% are more recent results. And of course gun control does nothing according to a number of government funded studies.

It may be that Americans are already so heavily armed, with firearms equal to the number of adults and guns in half the homes (surveys are very unreliable) that a few million more firearms makes no difference.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
1,998 Posts
3 kinds of lies. Lies, damn lies and statistics !

One hard to pin down statistic regarding firearms homicides is the "good riddance" factor. Gangster A kills Gangster B in an altercation. Still counts as a firearms homicide but good riddance to Gangster B and maybe Gangster A goes to prison for a while.
Armed citizen kills 3 home armed home invaders justifiably.
And so on.
Seemed like the Huff Po article was grasping at straws.
 

·
Gold Bullet Member/Moderator/Administrator/
Joined
·
27,677 Posts
They came out with a survey last year that said 3% of gun owners own 95% of the guns, or some BS number like that. Made up of whole cloth.
Serious gun collectors don't talk about how many they own.
 

·
Gold Bullet Member and Noted Curmudgeon
Joined
·
100,654 Posts
3 kinds of lies. Lies, damn lies and statistics !

One hard to pin down statistic regarding firearms homicides is the "good riddance" factor. Gangster A kills Gangster B in an altercation. Still counts as a firearms homicide but good riddance to Gangster B and maybe Gangster A goes to prison for a while.
Armed citizen kills 3 home armed home invaders justifiably.
And so on.
Seemed like the Huff Po article was grasping at straws.
Detective on local PD called that sort of thing a "twofer" (as in "two for one"). Agrravated me a little bit, as I'd just beaten a murder rap down to manslaughter (generally worth a max of 20) on the case. And then saw the jury come back with a life sentence when they found the enhancement paragrph "True" and that client was on parole for a murder whe he did the killing. I still think the self-defense claim should have prevailed, but the jury disagreed.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
13,944 Posts
3 kinds of lies. Lies, damn lies and statistics !

One hard to pin down statistic regarding firearms homicides is the "good riddance" factor. Gangster A kills Gangster B in an altercation. Still counts as a firearms homicide but good riddance to Gangster B and maybe Gangster A goes to prison for a while.
Armed citizen kills 3 home armed home invaders justifiably.
And so on.
Seemed like the Huff Po article was grasping at straws.
I have heard that referred to as a "NHI" shooting (no humans involved).
 

·
Silver Bullet member
Joined
·
36,239 Posts
They came out with a survey last year that said 3% of gun owners own 95% of the guns, or some BS number like that. Made up of whole cloth.
Serious gun collectors don't talk about how many they own.
Nor will they answer telephone or mail surveys on the subject since a couple of our People's Republics masquerading as states started confiscating some guns. That's why there's an apparent decline in households with guns while gun sales, especially to new users, have gone up.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
13,944 Posts
They came out with a survey last year that said 3% of gun owners own 95% of the guns, or some BS number like that. Made up of whole cloth.
Serious gun collectors don't talk about how many they own.
So that means if we assume there is one gun per person out there (this is very roughly accurate), that leftover 5% of the guns out there are evenly spread among the 40 plus percent of the remaining households with guns?

What do they do? Swap them around between households on Tuesdays and Fridays?

I don't figure I could even convince a smarter than average liberal (if there IS such a thing) to buy that load of crap.

One would think that 'some people' just might have learned that surveys (which in most part are taken by the EXACT SAME people who predicted a Hillary Clinton landslide last November) just MIGHT not be 100% accurate.
 

·
Silver Bullet member
Joined
·
36,239 Posts
So that means if we assume there is one gun per person out there (this is very roughly accurate), that leftover 5% of the guns out there are evenly spread among the 40 plus percent of the remaining households with guns?
The telephone and mail surveys on guns are inherently biased to reduce the apparent number of gun owning households, thanks to our well justified paranoia. EVERYONE in our peaceful, near zero crime suburban neighborhood has a gun in their house.

My best guess is that slightly over 50% have guns, the numberr from the 1970's, and that the supposed decline isn't due to the loss of interest in hunting - which has more than been offset by purchases for self defense - but to the refusal to answer any questions on gun ownership with anything but a NO!
 
1 - 12 of 12 Posts
This is an older thread, you may not receive a response, and could be reviving an old thread. Please consider creating a new thread.
Top