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Platinum Bullet Member
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Discussion Starter #1
So, even the most optimistic of economists are predicting recession by the end of the first quarter 2013. The largest tax increase in human history is going to happen in January. Automatic cuts, while don't bother me much as we need cuts, are going to throw people into full-on panic. It is up to a lame-duck Congress to fix it. So, in other words, it's unavoidable. Little or nothing will be done about it for the next two years as the GOP still holds the House, the Dem Senate refuses to pass budgets, and Obama is presiding over a very splintered nation.

Who will bear the brunt of voter backlash for it in the 2014 mid-terms? House Republicans, that's who. The media will be out in full force throwing blame around. The truth doesn't matter anymore, and anyone promising an easy way out is sure to win. This most recent election proves that. I predict the GOP loses the House in 2014.

Two years later, as Obama prepares to leave office, he will have it tee'd up for Hillary with economic stagnation at best, and economic anarchy at worst. You think we have a snowball's chance in hell to beat somebody who's last name is firmly attached to "the good ol days"?

Any takers?
 

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If the lame duck congress at least goes along with the idea of a middle-class tax cut, we will be fine.

Giving a big break to those making over $250K on off-shore investments is just not sustainable. A tax cut that would make sense is a big tax credit to those investors who actually build physical plant HERE.

Is this really hard to understand?
 

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Silver Bullet member
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34,398 Posts
I don't think that Hillary is marketable. She's getting long in the tooth and just isn't real photogenic these days, besides which her personality falls somewhere between that of a pit bull and that of a turnip. I think the Dems will groom another youngish, likeable up-and-comer for the candidacy.

And I don't think they're stupid enough to try to run Joe Biden...
 

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Diamond Bullet Member/Moderator
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If the lame duck congress at least goes along with the idea of a middle-class tax cut, we will be fine.

Giving a big break to those making over $250K on off-shore investments is just not sustainable. A tax cut that would make sense is a big tax credit to those investors who actually build physical plant HERE.

Is this really hard to understand?
It's irrelevant if you care at all about the deficit. Cancel the Bush cuts for everyone making over 250k a year and you bring in another 70 billion (assuming static models which likely overstate the revenues). Cancel the cuts for everybody and you bring in another 400 billion a year. Against a 1.2 trillion dollar annual deficit 400 billion is something; 70 billion is nothing.
From a political perspective I have to agree with Bohunk's assessment. The Reps have been maneuvered in to a no-win situation. In addition to going alone with dems on spending and taxes they also need to go along with them on immigration "reform" as 71% of hispanics voted for Obama. This will alienate what's left of their base and won't attract a single hispanic vote. I've come to think the politics is almost irrelevant though as the path we are on will lead to a decades long decline as our currency becomes increasingly worthless and our talent leaves for greener pastures in Asia and other parts of the growing world. It's not just the Republican party that's headed for extinction, it's the country - at least as we know it.
 

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Platinum Bullet Member
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Discussion Starter #5
It's irrelevant if you care at all about the deficit. Cancel the Bush cuts for everyone making over 250k a year and you bring in another 70 billion (assuming static models which likely overstate the revenues). Cancel the cuts for everybody and you bring in another 400 billion a year. Against a 1.2 trillion dollar annual deficit 400 billion is something; 70 billion is nothing.
From a political perspective I have to agree with Bohunk's assessment. The Reps have been maneuvered in to a no-win situation. In addition to going alone with dems on spending and taxes they also need to go along with them on immigration "reform" as 71% of hispanics voted for Obama. This will alienate what's left of their base and won't attract a single hispanic vote. I've come to think the politics is almost irrelevant though as the path we are on will lead to a decades long decline as our currency becomes increasingly worthless and our talent leaves for greener pastures in Asia and other parts of the growing world. It's not just the Republican party that's headed for extinction, it's the country - at least as we know it.
Agree 100%!

We are in a no-win situation politically. And further, as you say, it may not matter.

In the meantime, I'm stocking up on food, water, and ammo.
 

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Platinum Bullet Member
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Discussion Starter #6
I don't think that Hillary is marketable. She's getting long in the tooth and just isn't real photogenic these days, besides which her personality falls somewhere between that of a pit bull and that of a turnip. I think the Dems will groom another youngish, likeable up-and-comer for the candidacy.

And I don't think they're stupid enough to try to run Joe Biden...
If things get as bad as I suspect, her last name alone will carry her. Besides, I have been suspecting for a month or two that getting Bill on the campaign trail is one half of some sort of "deal". I don't know, maybe the DNC promises to make sure she's the nominee in four years...
 

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It's irrelevant if you care at all about the deficit. Cancel the Bush cuts for everyone making over 250k a year and you bring in another 70 billion (assuming static models which likely overstate the revenues).
Okay, we have to increase revenue collections, no matter what else. Austerity in spending alone is not going to do it, and never has.

Cancel the cuts for everybody and you bring in another 400 billion a year.
At the same time, you reduce the ability of the small investor to compete with national franchizes to enter the world of small business. Small business drove local ecconomies for years before Reagan skewed the whole thing to corporations.

Against a 1.2 trillion dollar annual deficit 400 billion is something; 70 billion is nothing.
That $360 billion in the hands of mom and pop businesses would probably do more to stimulate the ecconomy than would the same amount of money in the hands of corporate vultures like Mittens.
 

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Diamond Bullet Member/Moderator
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In the meantime, I'm stocking up on food, water, and ammo.
Never a bad idea but think Spain or England instead. That's what we're headed for. In another 30 or 40 years, when we come up with a budget, politicians will speak of "smart" military spending that allows us to "punch above our weight." What's left of the middle class will no longer live in single family homes - that will be reserved for the rich.
One means of self preservation is to limit exposure to dollars and dollar denominated assets. It's easy to invest in dozens of growing countries that don't yet have an entitlement mentality and have much lower corporate and individual tax rates. Resource rich developing countries are where to invest long term. Even Mexico offers far stronger fundamentals than the US. Yes, taxes on your gains will be horrific but at least you'll have gains to tax. Holding dollars - either in CD's or US government debt - is a road to poverty.
 

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Silver Bullet member
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If the lame duck congress at least goes along with the idea of a middle-class tax cut, we will be fine.

Giving a big break to those making over $250K on off-shore investments is just not sustainable. A tax cut that would make sense is a big tax credit to those investors who actually build physical plant HERE.

Is this really hard to understand?
Are you NUTS? Obama has passed the biggest middle class tax INCREASE in history, called Obamacare, and you think he'll CUT anyone's taxes? All he'll do is blow some more smoke, put up some more mirrors, and lie about a piddling tax credit for a very few people as being a "Middle Class Tax Cut."

And those people making a lot will move themselves AND their investments offshore. Why live in the USA or Europe and get squeezed to death?
 

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Copper Bullet Member
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I don't think that Hillary is marketable. She's getting long in the tooth and just isn't real photogenic these days, besides which her personality falls somewhere between that of a pit bull and that of a turnip. I think the Dems will groom another youngish, likeable up-and-comer for the candidacy.

And I don't think they're stupid enough to try to run Joe Biden...
What if he is declared President for Life? Other folks from the non-Anglo-Saxon regions have done so before.
 

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If the lame duck congress at least goes along with the idea of a middle-class tax cut, we will be fine.

Giving a big break to those making over $250K on off-shore investments is just not sustainable. A tax cut that would make sense is a big tax credit to those investors who actually build physical plant HERE.

Is this really hard to understand?

Dunno; ask your Dear Leader.
 

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What if he is declared President for Life? Other folks from the non-Anglo-Saxon regions have done so before.

You ought to be banned for even thinking of such a horrific scenario. :)


Good gosh...I can't think of much more apt to provoke nightmares. ;)
 

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Silver Bullet member
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or is he the last president of a "united" states.........transtiioning into seperate independent Republics!
 

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or is he thw last president of a "united" states.........transtiioning into seperate independent Republics!
Hope not.

Sounds like a very bloody, costly, and ultimately pyhrric transition to me. :(
 

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Diamond Bullet Member/Moderator
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Okay, Austerity in spending alone is not going to do it, and never has.
Austerity has a record of being the only thing that has worked as far as setting things straight after a credit bubble. Think Mexico, Brazil, Russia, Turkey, the whole "Asian contagion"... and if you think you can debt your way out of debt think Japan. Mired in a 20 year mess that's only getting worse with debt approaching or exceeding 200% of GDP.
 

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Gold Bullet Member and Noted Curmudgeon
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....Then I would expect him to have considerably LESS than another 4 years.
"Presidents for Life" often enough have a rather short one, true (but - not always; consider Robert Mugabe). I do NOT want to see us get into the habit of having rulers who shoot themselves into office.

Read Kipling's RIMINI for where that can go...
 

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Diamond with Oak Clusters and Swords member
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"Presidents for Life" often enough have a rather short on, true. I do NOT want to see us get into the habit of having rulers who shoot themselves into office.

Read Kipling's RIMINI for where that can go...
Change that to "rulers who have to be shot out of office".
 

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Silver Bullet Member an all around excellent guy
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That $360 billion in the hands of mom and pop businesses would probably do more to stimulate the ecconomy than would the same amount of money in the hands of corporate vultures like Mittens.
I love what you've just said. Love it!

I felt like I'd found a fellow populist for a moment there.

Here's the trouble, BHO has done jack squat for "mom and pops" so far. In fact, he's made life worse. Money is not flowing from banks to small business and its not coming from the government. I paid off a fat signature loan two years ago that was funded prior to the crash. I never missed a payment. Once it was done, I asked the bank for a renewal (you know...pump some money into this operation and our economy). My bank said, NO! A former partner of mine got "called" on his line of credit under similar circumstances. Bank said they no longer trusted the value of his collateral so - "give us back all our money now!"

Where did all that money our government pumped into banks go? It surely didn't "trickle down." Banks are tighter than ever.

The banks got bailed out. Corporations got bailed out. Did any real person get help? Do you know anyone that was stimulated by the stimulus?

I've never met one.
 

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Silver Bullet member
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or is he thw last president of a "united" states.........transtiioning into seperate independent Republics!
Hell, I'd like to bring back the Republic of West Florida. Break out the Bonnie Blue and wave 'er proudly!! :)
 
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